2013년 1월 27일 일요일

In searching for STOP LOSS point


Preface

Even to the professional traders, they can’t tell the Stop loss point from the lowest point

The Lowest point, eager  to know, is necessary condition for the loss cut and reversely ,the loss cut is sufficient condition for lowest point, since traders can’t always success the lose cut in spite of knowing the lowest point.
Hence the aim for study of the technical analysis chart is not rather for knowing the lowest point but than for managing the idea of imagination or visualization of “the loss cut”.

Without knowing any criterion or strategic of this, we  are predestined to be fail and any further step such as the retrospection of mind control will be like “put the cart before the horse” Because Stop loses is another matter of lowest point which is ceaselessly intermitted and interrupted and disturbance by the psychological trauma issues as well as money management.   

The rest of further step which is consequently remained only the matter of the response, the response according as situation of capricious candle point will be retrospection by dried reason,Since we have been countlessly betrayed and disappointed by lowest point.

The royal road to conquer the trading Forex/stock is synchronizing three master-intersection fields; chart analyzing, controlling psychology and money management. The Most troublesome field is the chart analyzing.

For the professional trader, snapshot on time, our target should be predominantly to melt and to synchronize another three sub-intersection; ‘C wave point, Bollinger Bands and stochastic indictors, to naked the lowest point in this book excluding thoroughly lucky guess

The chart , even to the professional traders, had unwelcome presented so many hard times, suffering and uneasiness, to decipher the lowest point which will be revealed by the chapters 3~8, having confidence in that when we know this point, we may be well armed with fearless kits against the fear.

The rest of them will be issue for psychology at chapter 9, (Knowing Oneself in technical Analysis) and will be subject for the Management: at chapter 10(A Game like Backgammon) and will be issue professional morality at chapter 11, Ethic in chart. Hence the book is sectionalized by master three parts and by sub-content three sectors 



We modestly grant that the prediction is God’s territory but not human being. We are only allowed to access here as imagination and response as necessary condition of lowest point.

The loot of ‘Prediction’ is itself confessing as pre (before) + diction (tell) before you tell something, we have to primordially possess some “idea, imagination or visualization” for responding a moving target.  The ability in this kind of job seems such a small difference but essentially big difference since the ability is almost a synonym of knowing the LOSS CUT or STOP LOSS.

 Without the idea or imagination, we would better be eye’s shoppers, shopping for only eyes like in department store but never open a wallet for any items and click it.

I will chiefly attempt for the naked that lowest point with my survival kits; two tools intersected by Bollinger bands and stochastic and a conception of the Elliott’s ‘C wave point “but from time to time

I will not exclude the collaboration not only from the ancestral heritage such as: classical 17 trend patterns for drawing resistance and supporting lines,(all 7 factors) but also those typical and traditional  three main indicator; candle, MA and volume in the light of human psychology and also will try to not stingy about the explications of the lowest point where social science is started and where is ended by social science

but I will less ‘stop loss’ as possible, and I will less abuse the panacea for excuse of “stop loss” We shall proceed (but my reader! Never do entry unless or otherwise without knowing of stop loss) we must carries those tools in war as essential weapon before going to the battle.

In fact I have long felt that our usual methods for technical analysis, falling along separate longitudinal sections — Bollinger bands, stochastic moving averages, candles, Elliott wave, traditional patterns, (except money management, states of mind, professional ethics, as well as  the histories from technical  charts) – do not do justice to the unity of real trading for the purposes of creating money in the technical analysis, even all indicator, should be written collaterally as well as linearly, synthetically as well as analytically on one chart, all for one.

Subsequently It is true that the specific information about indicators are insufficient for novices and  it is natural that required essentially for supplementary reading: Elliott wave, Bollinger bands, stochastic, Moving Average and candle chart as basic course. I will not parsimonious about disclosing to unique methodology and only issuable information which you can’t get from internet recourse.

but for the professional traders who knew what is the those indicator and more than 10 year experience do not necessary to supplementary reading but they are required to be majestically a peeping Tom how I am handing it.


There may be good cause for caution in forming such a view even technical analysis field as expression of chart language: The probability of error increases with the scope of the undertaking, and any analyst who promises a synthesis of indicator fields into one chart, all for one, may become a tragic target for the myriad of darts that experts can deliver in their critiques. Though I will dare to venture to display all the fear and greedy by means of those limited 7 components in my chart language  

Nevertheless those 7 key factors will be brutally pugnacious to professional traders as well as novice; skipped all the general information and even concisely compressed all the composite of elements, it may be hopefully good excuse that I haven’t solved problem of my bizarre chart alignment which is totally newcomers as originality Hence I put “the Instruction chapter” beforehand those 7 keys of my chart tools.

To begin this investigation of technical analysis, I offer what we may call “reports,” “On-air, live and from the scene,” through which I describe actual processes in trading – tales of battle and adventures that convince anyone who believes in the motto “seeing is believing.”

Nevertheless, the knowledge that investors and analysts have accumulated, had been divided into two areas: actual trading for the creation of money, a set of highly specialized processes affecting the supply and demand, especially in timing, so called technical anlysist; and the candle is eventually  converged into it’s internal value, so called  fundamental anlysist, Both of these fields have refrained from attempting any view of the whole process of the creation of yields — whether it be a view of indicators or of presumable candles; whether to predict their next movement or the effects of psychological  mutation from greed and fear.



From that point, we explore the issues confronting each investor: the complexity of a candle’s movement from the perspective of psychology, in real-time; greed and fear; resistance and supporting lines. Throughout all, I hold the view that “to be practiced a shortcut to learning or even better to be majestically peeping Tom how I am trading in toilet sneaky”  

First(unless  introduction charpder is first one ) chapter will be opened the results of my bank account how is fluctuated, luring as “On Air, Live from the Scene” to the Tom, peeping in my toilet.

Thus It may be very unfriendly to general users (novices) but professional traders who has experience at least 10 years, will catch the point “how come?” and “with what tools,” this guy is catching the fish! Hence the process of the curiosity will be deductively narrative as 7 survival factors.

How we are exposed, scared before money, and assailed by thousands of fear and greedy before money in trading according as candle’s dance. Since trading is 70% psychology, rest of them, technical issue.

In first chapter If you don’t know any lines on chart language, never mind, you will be gradually intimacy what is and how to read it. This is my final goal to be reached at though this progress in introduction chart.

But I am strongly insisting on that you must see first the account how is increasing. Tempting enough let us eager to listen what chart is telling us, and examined the lowest point well and truly, if not, let us turn away from my chart language unless the reason and logic has failed to guide and persuade you there.            

I want my readers to share this horrible fear with my chart. It will be huge advance in this field, if someone feels tragedy drama from chart; I think not less than 5 % of trades can feel how candle is sung and dance. hence  I adapt “on air ,live scene, how I strife for survivable , from the chart , feeling the uneasy,  suffer or agony , it is almost near to goals, thou, chart language is too difficult to decipher , if you feel it, it means you understand and listen to what chart is telling to you about good and bad news.

Perhaps this is best way for readers to lick my brain and heard my heart beating throughout live show of battle (I name on it as air live scene from the battle)  This may work, yes, as a narrative in the first chapter partly, and rest of them, Continued last chapter. If you don’t want to disconnect the story, you can directly skip to chapter 13

However I haven’t invented any of tools ,except my PMA, on my chart formation but found out what is more like  chemically and statically optimal combination from exposed indicators under sun, as well as what is for enhancing the possibility of candle movement.

Rather it looks like irresistible ice-creams. It seems no room for new invention like ‘reinventing wheel’ which has been existed already like my indicators on my chart, rather what I did, is how to make it only the delicious or irresistible ice cream since it is secretly matter of chemical combination from composited materials such as water, sugar or chocolate, which has been already existed.

in this time I am unwilling to tell you what is water, origin , what is an ingredient of sugar and what is imported tax on chocolate, rather willing to tell you how to composite chemically all better possibility, related number and factor for forging the irresistible ice-creams, Of course for creation of  money.

Similarly I am using Bollinger Band, stochastic, MA and C wave, for the confluence of intersection factors to know loss cut, which has been existed before me as a famous tools, but not as correlation Numbers to produce not for the delicious ice-cream but for the earning the money (if you don’t like this expression let us say “not losing money”) From now on, you may be part timely ‘Peeping Tom’ sees the chart No <s>43~60</s>, and then you will see this is real time live show from my chart and account as proof of the loss cut.


The currency market is much like war, but the fighting is conducted by our proxies, traders with civilized weapons. As soon as one sits down in a trading room with keyboard and mouse, one confronts an anonymous enemy who is Faceless, nameless, and nationless, but who, with one mouse click, accesses the vast arsenal of e-trading even in toilet. The currency war occurs every day, with a trade volume of USD 3 trillion.

As we view currency trading as a kind of war, we can see that the enterprise fits well into the whole structure and history of civilization. As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said, “War is father of all things.” Such war does not happen only on battlefields, but takes place even amid the civility of the modern world, everywhere and at all times in a variety of forms.

In the currency war, battles are fought between the bulls and the bears,(remember why we call trading terms as “the bullish and bearish phase”)  strife is between greed and fear. Ultimately, like all wars, it is being fought for the preservation of the civilization that wages it, for the sake of reproduction and survival.

Thus, we are marching to win a war, so that we can continue in the trade of life and in a life of trade. The tools I present – a survival kit for this war – may seem complex and odd at times. They are probably not suitable for all traders.

It has often been said that we can achieve this if we know how to control our fear and greed. However, such a goal is not realistic. Not even the most respected of analysts could achieve it, as the lives and work of Joseph E. Granville, Jesse Livermore, or Ralph Nelson Elliott attest.

Secondly, you may not be happy the process of trading, no matter what, from such as scalping, intraday trading, middle term trading or long term trading, rather it is the process of your life is unhealthy and dried life and you may be eventually living on the heavy stress, and Even entirely you isolated life from community. So many people will agree on that this is not good life

Also I believe that this is far from wellbeing life but it is busy for producing for just lonely warrior     

Finally the rest of 95%, losers from this game, we are meant to pave to Bible’s prediction “He who lives not by the stock shall not die by stock/Forex” Accordingly my scope of guidance will not be completely happy (even though 5% winner, survivors)

In fact, after result, we can make a voice thousand times as different shape for justifying but before result, we cannot even one voice for the tomorrow price.

We call it only God knows and nobody know tomorrow price. Even if I do ornament on my chart about lowest price, I do not really know, only God know and can predict tomorrow price.

If someone telling you that he knows tomorrow price, remind them of “power of compound interested ratio, if he knows it, amassed money like snowball and dying of too much money” and finally destroyed market run.

You may ask me what purpose you need to study for this book.
Answer will be for “responding as circumstance” since it is not territory of prediction but response
Then you doubt it again and ask me again “
Is it useless as chess game”?

Unless you are inevitable, have your own ‘principle’ or criterion and access with ‘idea or imagination of its next step from chart’ and execute “stop loss” you may be far from what you pine for. Hence Keep away from prediction such as stock, commodity and Forex.

It would to be unspeakably delightful if I get pardon from my readers not only for my poor language but also for handicaps of uncovered cultural gap, programed by Korean soil and soul, in the way of thinking and expressing, since the English is unassailable enemy to me.

Odyssey Lee  



 

 In searching for STOP LOSS point





The first one; the technical chart is our master subject, and the rest of three directories; Psychology in trading, Money Management, as well as Chart in ethic will be coordinated not so much for directed influence from technical analysis as in-directed influence from subordination of chapters; 9, 10, and 11.

we will try to navigate synchronous those three sub- subjects (3 balls) on 3 miller’s conditions, by tools of Trio indicators, for we will try not so much to dig up its internal value of the bottom price as to naked it’s timing as general as chart anlysist 



Summary of layman terms



In the expression of Diagram, it will be whole concept for your brainstorming  




For example the process will be combined with
Ø  one of master subject ,Technical chart analysis 
Ø  one of sub- subject, A Chair pattern
Ø  one of sub-sub -subject 3 miller’s conditions,







If you successfully synchronize the second step of sub-subject, 
you may finally well reach at the process of 3 miller’s conditions with Trio indicators.


 Its uses not only were so varied but also were reliable signals, and I would be always propitiated from them. 





Meanwhile
It has always been an endless game to chase the lowest point; it is a challenge to build on the work of the pioneers who came before us. 

In this method, which is a new combination of previously established methods, the path to the lowest point lies in three directions; the “chair pattern” modified by my "3 Miller traditional trend lines (14) pattern”, and the “Resistance & supporting lines (7pillars)”, 

and is supposed to be indicated by the “three Miller conditions” Rather than depend on any single of these measures, statistically speaking, it is advantageous to seek the optimal stoichiometry of all three. 

However, this does not constitute a 100% guarantee, but a much better-than-odds certainty. Remember there are no necessary conditions for lowest point but only sufficient conditions.

Even for professional traders, it is seldom distinguish the Stop-Loss point from the lowest point of a given graph series.

The Lowest Point, we should be glad to know, is a necessary condition for the Loss Cut Point and conversely, the Loss Cut Point is a sufficient condition for the Lowest Point, since traders can’t always succeed at the loss cut, in spite of knowing the lowest point. 

Hence the aim for study of the technical analysis chart is not rather for knowing the lowest point but rather of managing the idea or visualization of “the loss cut”. Without knowing any criterion or strategy such as this, we are predestined fail and any further steps such as the retrospection of mind control would be putting the cart before the horse. 

Because Stop Loss is also related to the lowest point it is unmitigatingly disturbed by psychological trauma issues as well as money management issues. (From the part of preface)  

Bon Voyage!
-End of Summary of layman terms-








Volume I
Instruction

of Our traditional heritage

                     




Chapter 1

Resistance & supporting lines with (7) pillars



Our terminus in studying chart is the bottom of price candle, shown as above, but we rarely convinced for those point whether if it is real McCoy or not.

I will attempt to create several resistance supported lines on that original with selected 7 pillars and of course, it can be re-checked and can be detective by my 3 millers with intersected conditions of 3 directions.
 I am highly yearning that it is not a fruitless attempt to ensure the better probability   

My task is to guide your entire intention for focusing all energy on those retracement waves, nothing but that corrective wave such as A, especially in C or E wave. 

It must be intersected by one of 7 pillars requirement, shown as the above diagram, intersected by my (7) pillars as bellows pattern, which should be one of three directions.

However in any sense of simplicity, your brainstorming of key diagram will be processed      as bellow of combination.  


Finding out the bulls eye, we rectify 7 pillars by filtering my 3 millers. The routine with same process as above in each combination will be our final destination in this book 
Not to find out the Resistance & supporting lines from the chart is not to create the statistic from market” that is all, nothing can be better expressed but this is main reason why you have to allot time to study of 7 pillars.
 But in actual trading the finding out it is not often enough to ensure
It will be double defense, finding out those 7 pillars, that you may enhance the probability, adapting it several diverse time frame charts rather than just one chart. it makes you comforted, and reliable ,for example if you find out one of those pillar in daily chart, instantly transmit  it into 60 minute, weekly or monthly timeframe chart and synthetically look around  as means of  Kant bee.
Personally in my timeframe, I endeavor to obtain first signal in daily chart as means of chair pattern, and apply those reason into 7 pillars subordinated chart such as 5 or 30 minute chart. It is high probable way to enhance the possibility from those 7 pillars.


Above subject will be satisfied with 3 miller’s necessary condition of bull’s eye mark shown as bellow 


In sense of structural convenience, I would like to approach here with different angle of conception from the Resistance & supporting line, where meant to be one of sufficient condition of the retracement wave.    
It is bull’s eyes, the lowest point, where we shoot on not with arrow but with logic & reason.

We can access the lowest point not only from my chair patterns with my 3 millers but also from the conception of 7 factors (I name on 7 pillars) of Resistance & supporting lines, 

because my methodology for the lowest points skills should be overlapped  by one of 7 factors of Resistance & supporting such as: Fibonacci line, Gaps of candle, Previous high &low price, Psychological price, Bollinger Bands Moving average, as well as Typical Trend lines & patterns.

Meanwhile this chapters of “7 pillars” and “Typical Trend lines & patterns” is doubly intersected in common with traditional trend line patterns since Dow Jons which should not rudely ignore, as our heritage of technical chart analysis skill, due to the proof of survivals thorough natural selection Such as: Ladder pattern Wedge patters, Triangles, Flag pattern, Moving average (MA) Converged to power with 3 MAs.


I have assiduously grubbed all the facts where converged into the lowest point; for I have strongly believed that this is matter of quantity game for assembling our heritage to enhance the better statistic ; such as 14 trend lines and 7 pillars for 3 millers condition and  to ensure the highest probability from the precarious fortunes of the chase.
At any rate 
Those 7 pillars have been our heritage in technical analysis field. It is proved year by year and generation by generation and survived by the process of “natural selection” in any sense of a last stander.

You may well give them some credit, but not too much for all your credit to those 7 pillars and you may well share your predilection with correlated facts for Stop loss.

 I wish you to regard it as a means of tracing one of lowest methodology. Don’t be too naive too trust them all. 

When it is interested with other fact, let us not ignore as just passing a dog on the street from windrow of your life but pay to curious attention with my trio indicators.
Meanwhile it suddenly has been occur on me that perhaps it was not so much matter of finding just those patterns, as matter of chemical combining with that element of facts,
Or as perhaps simultaneity comparing with other chart from diverse timeframe.
Or as in all essential aspects as Kant bee[1], for it was not so much required the brain power for interpretation as comported with Greedy and fear in retrospection.
Or perhaps it is by far the most important step for eventually synchronizing all the factors, on a larger scale targeting for stop loss
This is my grotesque chart formation, programed to be unfriendly but to be ensure high possibility. It is shown Elliott wave.     

We are going to dissolve the inside of the circle (2 wave) which is our bulls eyes where there are the Confluence of as all 7 pillars resistances and supported line, not to speak of  other two balls. 

We will repeatedly and persistently try to shoot and shoot aging it, dissecting in side of circle until it became to be intimate with ours eyes. It may not be unproductive effort for our journey at all.  
“What you can see it” is synonym of “what you get it” or “you can see as much as you see” 

We will diagnosis those bottoms of retracement and bottom of fear (the corrective wave) with my 3 millers after punctiliously zoom in/out, on large scale,  this ambushing place. 

I highly expect that you will be gradually intimated from a sort of xenophobia of my chart formation.



It is part of previous chart, where is zoomed in those parts.
Let us see the inside world of my grotesque chart what is going on, zooming  in/out, details drama inside of circle. It come to us clear enough to be diagnosis with my tools.
In fact it is displayed all the 7 pillars, I know, it is obscure lines enough to suffocate your breathe and brain. It is still Greek to us.  

Can you find out where are confluence 7 pillar of in this chart
Yes See  and !

scrutinize those points since it is my hunting place but  and ⑧ I will narrate later in stochastic chapter in my trio indicators[1]
Anyway
Have you looked your circumstance back where we are in the light of Macro view?
And have you feel some sensation for synchronizing the fact?

Yes! See  and  circle marked, red color marked, zooming in/out, Using the scroll bar function so as to zoom in and out.
Those two points are the Eldorado where has been gold mine and been in lowers point within 1 month period, retracement and eventually where we are heading for The point where are insinuating and luring our attention as 7 pillars, resistances and supported lines.
Dissolving of that point into its element is the aim of this chapter.

Meanwhile You may notice that background color both blue and white which is my personal  program to obtain automatically the bullish phase (blue) and bearish phase (white background). 

In side of this wave you can hunt the lowest point. Regardless of size of wave, I will take place to hunt only in the retracement wave.
Remember always about your stance where we are, thinking as a big as you can, comparing related timeframe chart as possible as you can, 

and trying to see whole forest but not a tree as often as you can. I will tell you soon how to achieve such a sensation of navigation, from MA and the wave.


In all essential aspects,
Ask yourself why the point could be some significant and infatuated by professional eyes?Because it has reasons and is intersected and concurrent by 7 pillars.

If you have same eyes as professional eyes, it may be beneficial for we voyage as the magnetic like the North Star, a navigator,as long as  we can synchronize 7 pillars with the professional eyes

1.    Fibonacci line
2.    Gaps
3.    Previous high price and low
4.    Psychological price
5.    Bollinger Bands
6.    Trend line
7.    Moving average (MA)


See  again, as well as it’s vertical timeframe which are  and . From the this point of , the sooner had you seen 7 pillars, than your wallet had been thicken and heavy, because it is best ambushing place to hunt whenever BBS is opening as Dynamic stage, which is one of 3 millers conditions.  

Count on with your finger how many do you find out such intersections of those 7 pillars? 
And consider the PMA (Previous moving average refers to MA chapter)?
I advise you to solve this question on papers, taking it easy, slowly but surely
In this chart, can you find out where are all the 7 pillars of them?
And can you be familiar with this chart, now?
You are inside of our main chart.
After “zooming in” I wish you to remember where you are now and what stance we are, before shooting on the target


We shall proceed to find out those outside layer of target point, Resistance & supporting lines with (7) pillars since the layer is one of our ball to be digested before we reached at 3 millers conditions.
                                                     End of instruction 


[1] Trio indicators: 3 toolkits: Moving average, Bollinger bands and stochastic  




[1] See the Ethic in chart :Kant bee; an way of access to analyze the chart both inductive and deductive logic especially approaching in whole chart  or multi chart such as in BBS, MA lines and patterns as synthetic judgment











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